Can Zach Wilson of the Jets, second-year NFL QB, make a leap?
Some of the biggest questions about the 2022 NFL season come from a group of teams with something in common. They drafted QBs in 2021 and are looking for a jump in 2022. With so many crucial questions surrounding Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Mac Jones and Davis Mills, let’s dig in.
Whether or not these teams — Jacksonville, New York Jets, Chicago, San Francisco, New England and Houston — have the right quarterbacks is critical to whether they can meet or exceed expectations this year. Click odds anywhere in this article to bet now, including total winnings at BetMGM Sportsbook.
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Jaguars record in 2021: 3-14
Total wins 2022: 6.5 (over +110/under -130)
Trevor Lawrence had a shockingly bad first season in the NFL, going the No. 1 overall pick for 12 touchdowns, 17 interceptions and averaging 214 yards in his first full season. It’s unclear how fair that is, but he was hugely disappointing last season.
The positives for Jaguars are many – Urban Meyer is no longer around, and Jaguars spent a lot of money on arms for him – but even after Urban left he only averaged 226, 5 yards per game through the air, and he consistently had a 3:3 TD:INT ratio in those four starts.
Christian Kirk should add another dimension to the Jags offense, and having 2021 first-round pick Travis Etienne in the backfield after missing the entire 2021 season will help, but the Jags weren’t just bad the year last, they were really terrible. Worst in the league by DVOA, Over bettors are really hoping Doug Pederson’s reputation for QB whispers works.
They also play a tough schedule, attracting the AFC West and NFC East this season. That said, if Lawrence is the quarterback he was at Clemson, then the Jaguars’ total winning odds in the NFL are fair. It’s just not clear, based on his 2021 game, that he could be that.
Trevor Lawrence Prop Betting Odds
Jets record in 2021: 4-13
Total wins in 2022: 6.5 (over +125 / under -160)
The Jets also depend on a quarterback who showed little in his rookie season with Zach Wilson, whose 9:11 TD:INT ratio and 190 yards per game in the 12 games he finished inspire. not much confidence.
If you squint hard enough, you can (sort of) find some optimism in the numbers – in the seven games after returning from injury, Wilson threw just two interceptions, but even that wasn’t not a function of his improvement, it was a function of him taking almost no risk. He ranked 27th in the Intended Air Yards during the season, and his Intended Air Yards went from 253.5 per game before the injury to a putrid 197 per game after.
If Mekhi Becton can justify his 2020 first-round selection on the offensive line, giving Wilson more time might help him. He was sacked 44 times in 13 games. If the Jets don’t trust Zach Wilson more than they did in the second half of the season, they’re not going anywhere fast.
Playing the AFC North and NFC North is a tough schedule, even though they have the advantage of playing against the Browns during a probable suspension of Deshaun Watson, and six games against their division enemies – who all plan to winning more games this season – has the ingredients for a difficult season. Zach Wilson needs to show he can outplay his reserve QBs in 2022.
Zach Wilson Prop Betting Odds
2021 49ers record: 10-7
Total wins 2022: 9.5 (over -140/under +115)
The Niners have suffered a few losses this offseason in their defense, but with their elite passing rush still intact and Charvarius Ward now at bay, their horrible secondary may not be too bad, which has been their glaring weakness in Garoppolo’s time. But all of that is secondary to the real question in San Francisco, which is whether Trey Lance can be the guy or not.
Unlike Lawrence and Wilson, Lance’s stats in 2021 aren’t significant. He only started on point duty and he was always intended to be a developing quarterback who would take over in the second year. Garoppolo played the role of Alex Smith in his final season at Kansas City, before handing over the reins to the quarterback often described in the draft process as a version of “raw, with a huge upside, but an all-out downside. also important”.
We don’t know if that bet pays off or not, but the thing with Lance is that he just has to play as well as Jimmy G did in 2021, to reach that total, and that’s not such a high bar. Jimmy G threw for just 254 yards per game, had a 20:12 TD:INT ratio and was 24th in the league in Intended Air Yards, with a good chunk of that yardage coming from Deebo Samuel shaking things up after the capture.
Assuming Deebo’s contract situation is resolved, it comes down to whether or not Lance is.
Trey Lance Prop Betting Odds
2021 Bears record: 6-11
Total wins in 2022: 6.5 (over +120 / under -145)
The Bears have the smallest gap between their expected wins and their current record, which is odd considering Justin Fields wasn’t consistently great last year. He had moments where he popped up — notably his Monday Night Football matchup (sort of) with Pittsburgh — but he was stuck in a team and coaching staff that was terrible.
For some reason, Jacksonville benefits from the doubt that their fired coach cost them games, but the ever-changing QB carousel and unimaginative offense are held up against Fields and the Bears.
Yes, the Bears traded Khalil Mack, but that loss is less than his name suggests given his injury history. If Fields improves with consistent playing time and new personnel, the Bears should easily cross that number, especially playing in the AFC East and NFC East, divisions where the Bears will have chances in almost every game. matches.
Justin Fields Prop Betting Odds
2021 Patriots record: 10-7
Total wins in 2022: 8.5 (over -115 / under -105)
Unlike the other four teams, we have a good idea of who Mac Jones is. He was good at Alabama with a line of killer receivers, and now he’s pitching to one of the worst receiving corps in the league.
Jones’ upside is less handsome Jimmy G — a useful quarterback who won’t make mistakes and can handle a game — and he did that well enough last year to get them into the playoffs. Trouble is, that doesn’t change the fact that he threw for 13 interceptions and 224 yards per game.
Belichick clearly didn’t trust him – having only pitched him three times in the Wild Wind game at Buffalo last year, and keeping him in a restrictive offensive set deep in the Wild Card round at Orchard Park. If that’s the case in 2022, the Pats will have the worst quarterback in most games. This isn’t an issue when betting on a team to win a small number of games, but it is when playing the AFC North and NFC North, two physical divisions.
There’s also a chance that Belichick will trust Jones more and pitch more often. The team no longer has a full-back on the roster entering training camp. Maybe it’s a sign that the team intends to be less heavy in 11 and 12 versus 21 and 22. If the defense can replicate their elite performance or if Jones takes a serious step forward , the win total is within the result range. But how accessible is this ceiling?
Mac Jones Prop Betting Odds
2021 Texans record: 4-13
Total wins in 2022: 4.5 (over -115 / under -105)
The Texans, with new head coach Lovie Smith and after trading Deshaun Watson and getting rid of the question marks from his situation, are looking to see if Davis Mills can be the guy or not. The only non-first-round pick in the field, Mills started 11 games last year, and it’s a pivotal year to see if the Texans should go with a QB at the top of the draft or not.
Mills had a disappointing first season, passing for 205/game and throwing 10 interceptions in 13 games, but he broke 300 passing yards twice in the final five games of the season and he led the Texans to a victory of Week 17 on the Chargers. .
There’s still not much around Mills, with the Texans having traded plenty of first-round picks in recent years, but if Mills can more consistently show the form that sometimes appears towards the end of the season, then the Texans could top that number, especially if they can do decently in the not-so-big AFC South.